Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryJackson
10HR →12
47R ←36
39RBI ←31
7SB →14
.305AVG ←.251
Current Season
BrandonCategoryJackson
5HR ←2
29R ←13
24RBI ←11
4SB →5
.317AVG ←.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.337, +0.022 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 47 R. Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).