Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryMike
10HR →21
49R →67
40RBI →46
7SB7
.302AVG ←.240
Current Season
BrandonCategoryMike
5HR →14
29R →45
24RBI →31
4SB →5
.317AVG ←.242
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Mike Trout
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.420, +0.105 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Mike Trout: 21 HR / 67 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).