Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryByron
10HR →20
47R →60
39RBI →41
6SB →8
.304AVG ←.219
Current Season
BrandonCategoryByron
5HR →17
29R →40
24RBI →27
4SB →5
.317AVG ←.258
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.411 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.337 is 0.031 below the surface — regression coming
Byron Buxton
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 47 R. Byron Buxton: 20 HR / 60 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).