Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryCody
10HR10
49R →56
40RBI →58
7SB →8
.302AVG ←.274
Current Season
BrandonCategoryCody
5HR →8
29R →37
24RBI →38
4SB →5
.317AVG ←.271
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Cody Bellinger
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.375, +0.060 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Cody Bellinger: 10 HR / 56 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).