
498 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY
Cody Bellinger
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.339); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .252HR 1R 6RBI 7SB 1
Bellinger is a hold — his skill sits right at league average.
ROS projects HR 8 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .271 YTD → .252 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %5.8%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~6.7% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.339)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
363 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
363 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
363 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.339
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
498 / 160 PA
wOBA.334
lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —
498 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —
498 / 60 PA
Walk %11.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
498 / 120 PA
BABIP.293
lg avg .295 ▼−.002vs his norm +.001 ▲BABIP is above his ~.292 norm — expect it to fall.
363 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
498 / 50 PA
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
498 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.8%→6.1%signal1 HR — Barrel% 5.8% (signal) lifted to career ~6.7% → projected 6.1%.
BABIP 0.293→0.287 regressednoise.252 AVG — BABIP 0.293 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.273) → 0.287.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (5 in 58 G) over ~44 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.