MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brandon Marsh
367 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Brandon Marsh

PHI·LF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.320) — BABIP 0.372 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 4AVG .274R 26RBI 22SB 4

Marsh is a hold — trending up but still league-average skill.

His expected wOBA is .320, essentially league average, and his 367 plate appearances make that number reliable. His actual wOBA sits at .352, five points above his xwOBA, and the gap comes from BABIP — .372 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs about 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 249, so some of that average will regress. The contact quality is fine: exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate are all slightly above league and stable. But he strikes out 26.4% and walks only 5.2%, a 21-point gap that limits his on-base upside. His xwOBA has been stepping up across the sample, but the skill is still at the league-average line. Hold. 4 HR, 26 R, 22 RBI, 4 SB, .274 AVG: a deep-league hold whose league-average skills cap the ceiling.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.2%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~9.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.320)
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.372 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
89.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
249 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.4%
45.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
249 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.2%
norm9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
249 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.320
.320*
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —
367 / 160 PA
wOBA.352
believable since May 31.352*
lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm —
367 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.4%
26.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
367 / 60 PA
Walk %5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
367 / 120 PA
BABIP.372
norm.372*
lg avg .295 ▲+.077vs his norm +.003 ▲BABIP is above his ~.369 norm — expect it to fall.
249 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.0%
14.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
367 / 50 PA
Chase %37.8%
37.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.3%vs his norm —
367 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.2%→9.2%signal4 HR — Barrel% 9.2% (signal) tempered to career ~9.1% → projected 9.2%.
BABIP 0.372→0.339 regressednoise.274 AVG — BABIP 0.372 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.325 (xBA 0.269) → 0.339.
on-base + lineup26 R — his run rate over ~182 projected PA.
slugging + lineup22 RBI — his RBI rate over ~182 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (4 in 54 G) over ~182 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups