MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brandon Marsh
525 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Brandon Marsh

PHI·LF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.306) — BABIP 0.329 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 1AVG .252R 6RBI 5SB 1

Marsh is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable underneath.

His expected wOBA is .306, just under the league average of .315, and he has 525 plate appearances — past the point where that number is reliable. His contact quality backs it up without exceeding it: 89.3 mph average exit velocity against a league average of 89.0, a 43.5% hard-hit rate, and 8.3% barrels. His actual wOBA of .317 is sitting right on league average. The one number that will move is his BABIP, .329 against a league average of .295, and it needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 361. Some of that batting average is due to give back, and his expected wOBA has been stepping down rather than up. There is no edge to buy and no flaw to sell. Hold. 1 HR / 6 R / 5 RBI / 1 SB is a rotational drag — hold, but he's a drop the moment a waiver bat heats up.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.3%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~9.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.306)
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.329 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
89.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
361 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
361 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
361 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
525 / 160 PA
wOBA.317
believable since May 31.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
525 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.8%
24.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
525 / 60 PA
Walk %6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
525 / 120 PA
BABIP.329
norm.329*
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm −.040 ▼BABIP is below his ~.369 norm — expect it to rise.
361 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.0%
13.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
525 / 50 PA
Chase %36.4%
36.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
525 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.3%→8.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 8.3% (signal) lifted to career ~9.1% → projected 8.6%.
BABIP 0.329→0.317 regressednoise.252 AVG — BABIP 0.329 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.307 (xBA 0.256) → 0.317.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~41 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~41 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (4 in 54 G) over ~41 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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