Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryCarson
10HR →13
49R ←45
40RBI ←34
7SB →15
.302AVG ←.278
Current Season
BrandonCategoryCarson
5HR ←4
29R ←28
24RBI ←21
4SB →9
.317AVG ←.248
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Carson Benge
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.348, +0.033 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Carson Benge: 13 HR / 45 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).