Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryFernando
10HR →15
49R ←32
40RBI ←28
7SB →21
.302AVG ←.295
Current Season
BrandonCategoryFernando
5HR ←1
29R ←21
24RBI ←18
4SB →14
.317AVG ←.266
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Fernando Tatis Jr.
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.349, +0.034 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 15 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).