Rest of Season Projection
CorbinCategoryFernando
14HR →15
57R ←32
43RBI ←28
11SB →21
.266AVG →.295
Current Season
CorbinCategoryFernando
7HR ←1
37R ←21
28RBI ←18
7SB →14
.286AVG ←.266
What Each Player's System Trusts
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.351 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.364 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Fernando Tatis Jr.
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.349, +0.034 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Corbin Carroll: 14 HR / 57 R. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 15 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).