Rest of Season Projection
FernandoCategoryJackson
14HR ←12
31R →36
26RBI →31
21SB ←14
.292AVG ←.251
Current Season
FernandoCategoryJackson
1HR →2
21R ←13
18RBI ←11
14SB ←5
.266AVG →.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Fernando Tatis Jr.
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.344, +0.029 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 14 HR / 31 R. Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).