Rest of Season Projection
CodyCategoryJackson
10HR →12
54R ←36
55RBI ←31
7SB →14
.276AVG ←.251
Current Season
CodyCategoryJackson
8HR ←2
37R ←13
38RBI ←11
5SB5
.271AVG →.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Cody Bellinger
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.379, +0.064 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Cody Bellinger: 10 HR / 54 R. Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).