Rest of Season Projection
ByronCategoryJackson
20HR ←12
61R ←36
41RBI ←31
8SB →14
.219AVG →.251
Current Season
ByronCategoryJackson
17HR ←2
40R ←13
27RBI ←11
5SB5
.258AVG →.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Byron Buxton
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.332, +0.017 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Byron Buxton: 20 HR / 61 R. Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).