MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Byron Buxton
408 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Byron Buxton

MIN·CF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.66
ROSHR 1AVG .210R 8RBI 5SB 1

Buxton is a buy — the contact is real and getting better.

His expected wOBA is .343, .028 above the league average of .315, and his sample is well past the point where that becomes reliable. The number is earned: his hard-hit rate is 46.7% against a league average of 40.0%, his barrel rate is 15.8% against 8.0%, and both have been climbing across the season rather than flattening. His actual wOBA of .355 runs slightly above his expected mark, but not by enough to call it luck — the gap is small and his contact quality backs the line. He does swing and miss more than most, with a 16.5% swinging-strike rate and a 24.5% strikeout rate, so batting average will have cold weeks. The power skill underneath is stable and still improving. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %15.8%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~15.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
90.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
272 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.7%
46.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
272 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.8%
norm15.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
272 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.343
.343*
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —
408 / 160 PA
wOBA.355
.355*
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —
408 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.5%
24.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
408 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
408 / 120 PA
BABIP.279
norm.279*
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm −.022 ▼BABIP is below his ~.301 norm — expect it to rise.
272 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.5%
16.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
408 / 50 PA
Chase %34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
408 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 15.8%→15.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 15.8% (signal) tempered to career ~15.4% → projected 15.6%.
BABIP 0.279→0.265 regressednoise.210 AVG — BABIP 0.279 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.258 (xBA 0.248) → 0.265.
on-base + lineup8 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (5 in 51 G) over ~44 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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