MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Byron Buxton
408 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Byron Buxton

MIN·CF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.66
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Buxton is a buy — the contact is elite and still climbing.

His hard-hit rate sits at 46.7% against a league average of 40.0%, and it has been stepping up across the sample. That is the number doing the most work here. He has 272 batted balls, well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable, and the barrel rate backs it up at 15.8% against a league average of 8.0%. His expected wOBA is .343, .028 above the league average of .315, and his actual wOBA of .355 runs slightly ahead of it — so nothing here is being propped up by bounces. His xwOBA has been climbing too, which matters more than the strikeouts and the elevated swing-and-miss for this call. The bat is legitimately above average and the trend line is pointing the right direction. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %15.8%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~15.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
90.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
272 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.7%
46.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
272 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.8%
norm15.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
272 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.343
.343*
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —
408 / 160 PA
wOBA.355
.355*
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —
408 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.5%
24.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
408 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
408 / 120 PA
BABIP.279
norm.279*
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm −.022 ▼BABIP is below his ~.301 norm — expect it to rise.
272 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.5%
16.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
408 / 50 PA
Chase %34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
408 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 15.8%→15.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 15.8% (signal) tempered to career ~15.4% → projected 15.6%.
BABIP 0.279→0.265 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.279 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.258 (xBA 0.248) → 0.265.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (5 in 51 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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