MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jackson Chourio
283 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Jackson Chourio

MIL·LF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.334, +0.019 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.339 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.64
ROSHR 5AVG .252R 21RBI 18SB 8

Chourio is a buy — elite contact is the real story.

His hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample and now sits at 46.4% — well above the league average of 40.0% and past the point of being reliable. His average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel rate (13.5%) are also comfortably above league norms, all on enough batted balls to trust. His expected wOBA is .334, 19 points above league average, and his actual wOBA is .359 — a gap that comes entirely from an elevated but unstable BABIP (.339 against .295 league). That BABIP gap will narrow, knocking a few points off the surface line, but the contact quality is real and trending up. The skill is the story, not the BABIP tailwind. Buy. Expected 5 HR, 21 R, 18 RBI, 8 SB, .252 AVG: a deep-league hold with power-speed upside. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %13.5%—+4.7% ▲vs his ~8.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.334, +0.019 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.2 mph
92.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
193 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.4%
46.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —
193 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.5%
normbelievable since May 2913.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm +4.7% ▲
193 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.334
.334*
lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —
283 / 160 PA
wOBA.359
.359*
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —
283 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.4%
24.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
283 / 60 PA
Walk %7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
283 / 120 PA
BABIP.339
norm.339*
lg avg .295 ▲+.044vs his norm +.026 ▲BABIP is above his ~.313 norm — expect it to fall.
193 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
283 / 50 PA
Chase %33.8%
33.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
283 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.5%→11.1%signal5 HR — Barrel% 13.5% (signal) tempered to career ~8.8% → projected 11.1%.
BABIP 0.339→0.332 regressednoise.252 AVG — BABIP 0.339 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.330 (xBA 0.251) → 0.332.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~174 projected PA.
slugging + lineup18 RBI — his RBI rate over ~174 projected PA.
run rate / role8 SB — his steal rate (5 in 23 G) over ~174 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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