Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryKyle
12HR ←11
36R →54
31RBI →40
14SB ←6
.251AVG →.258
Current Season
JacksonCategoryKyle
2HR →4
13R →37
11RBI →27
5SB ←4
.276AVG ←.238
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Kyle Tucker
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.333, +0.018 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Kyle Tucker: 11 HR / 54 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).