MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Tucker
381 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Kyle Tucker

LAD·RF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.336); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSAVG .255HR 4R 30RBI 22SB 3

Tucker is a hold — stable near-average bat, no edge.

His expected wOBA is .336 — just .021 above league average — and it has been stepping up across 381 plate appearances, which is enough to trust the number. His actual wOBA is .321, nearly the same, so luck is not inflating or depressing his line. His contact quality metrics align: average exit velocity is exactly league average, hard-hit rate is within a half-point of league, and barrel rate is two points below. There is no shaky luck stat driving the line and no elite skill to chase. The profile is what it looks like: a league-average hitter who walks a good amount and makes solid but not loud contact. If you own him, he fills a spot. If you don't, the data says there's nothing to act on. Hold. 30 R and 22 RBI at .255 AVG make him a dead-zone drop; no edge to chase in shallow formats.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.9%—−5.2% ▼vs his ~11.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.336)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.0 mph
89.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
255 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
255 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.9%
norm5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −5.2% ▼
255 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.336
.336*
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —
381 / 160 PA
wOBA.321
.321*
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
381 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.9%
19.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
381 / 60 PA
Walk %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
381 / 120 PA
BABIP.294
norm.294*
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm +.009 ▲BABIP is above his ~.285 norm — expect it to fall.
255 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
381 / 50 PA
Chase %24.9%
24.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
381 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.9%→8.2%signal4 HR — Barrel% 5.9% (signal) lifted to career ~11.1% → projected 8.2%.
BABIP 0.294→0.302 regressednoise.255 AVG — BABIP 0.294 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.305 (xBA 0.262) → 0.302.
on-base + lineup30 R — his run rate over ~196 projected PA.
slugging + lineup22 RBI — his RBI rate over ~196 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (4 in 57 G) over ~196 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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