Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryKyle
5HR →11
38R →57
48RBI ←41
19SB ←6
.258AVG ←.248
Current Season
JakeCategoryKyle
4HR4
20R →37
25RBI →27
10SB ←4
.288AVG ←.238
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Kyle Tucker
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.323)
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Kyle Tucker: 11 HR / 57 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).