MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jake McCarthy
519 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Jake McCarthy

COL·LF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.322 is 0.031 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.325 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.73
ROSHR 0AVG .259R 5RBI 6SB 2

McCarthy is a sell-high — his BABIP is carrying the line.

His actual wOBA is .353, but the stat underneath it says the line is better than the bat. His BABIP is .325 against a league average of .295, and he has 400 balls in play of the 800 BABIP needs before it becomes reliable. That gap is luck. Strip the luck out and his expected wOBA is .322. His contact quality does not back the surface either: 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a 28.7% hard-hit rate, both well below league, on a sample long past stable. He strikes out only 16.2% of the time, so the floor is real, but the power is not. The stable skill is a contact hitter, not the line the market sees. Sell high. 0 HR / 5 R / 6 RBI / 2 SB is a deep-league counting drag — sell the window before .259 AVG regresses.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.3%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~3.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.325 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.322 is 0.031 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.6 mph
85.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
400 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.7%
28.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.3%vs his norm —
400 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.3%
norm5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
400 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.322
believable since Jun 3.322*
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —
519 / 160 PA
wOBA.353
.353*
lg avg .315 ▲+.038vs his norm —
519 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.2%
16.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
519 / 60 PA
Walk %5.4%
5.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
519 / 120 PA
BABIP.325
norm.325*
lg avg .295 ▲+.030vs his norm +.024 ▲BABIP is above his ~.301 norm — expect it to fall.
400 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
12.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
519 / 50 PA
Chase %38.1%
38.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.6%vs his norm —
519 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.3%→4.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.3% (signal) tempered to career ~3.2% → projected 4.6%.
BABIP 0.325→0.320 regressednoise.259 AVG — BABIP 0.325 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.316 (xBA 0.275) → 0.320.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~38 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~38 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (10 in 50 G) over ~38 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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