Is Jake McCarthy a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell High — surface results exceed what the underlying metrics support; sell into the hype.

What is Jake McCarthy's rest-of-season outlook?

85 mph exit velo with .055 wOBA-xwOBA gap.

307 PA · week 17

this weekSELL-HIGH

last weekHOLD

Jake McCarthy

COL·CF

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026

Sell High luck-free skill 0.314 is 0.055 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.79

ROSHR 2AVG .254R 21RBI 26SB 10

McCarthy is a sell-high — .339 BABIP is a mirage.

His actual wOBA is .369, but it is overproducing his luck-free skill. His expected wOBA is .314, a gap of 55 points driven entirely by BABIP. McCarthy's BABIP sits at .339 — 44 points above the league average of .295 — and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize. He has 232. That gap is luck, not skill. The contact quality does not support a .369 wOBA: his exit velocity is 85 mph, 4 mph below league, and his hard-hit rate is 25.9% against a 40% league average — his barreling is below average, too. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, but the skill metrics say the current production will not hold. Sell high. 2 HR, 21 R, 26 RBI, 10 SB, .254 AVG — a deep-league sell-high window; deal him now.

VS His Norm

Barrel %6.0%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~3.2% career norm

Drivers

babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.314 is 0.055 below the surface — regression coming

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo85.0 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.0 mphvs his norm —

232 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %25.9%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−14.1%vs his norm —

232 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm +2.8% ▲

232 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.314

lg avg .315 ▼−.001vs his norm —

307 / 160 PA

wOBA.369

lg avg .315 ▲+.054vs his norm —

307 / 200 PA

Strikeout %17.6%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —

307 / 60 PA

Walk %5.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —

307 / 120 PA

BABIP.339

lg avg .295 ▲+.044vs his norm +.038 ▲BABIP is above his ~.301 norm — expect it to fall.

232 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %12.4%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —

307 / 50 PA

Chase %34.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —

307 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.0%→4.7%signal2 HR — Barrel% 6.0% (signal) tempered to career ~3.2% → projected 4.7%.

BABIP 0.339→0.310 regressednoise.254 AVG — BABIP 0.339 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.298 (xBA 0.261) → 0.310.

on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~168 projected PA.

slugging + lineup26 RBI — his RBI rate over ~168 projected PA.

run rate / role10 SB — his steal rate (10 in 50 G) over ~168 projected PA.

rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons