Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryOneil
5HR →19
38R →63
48RBI →61
19SB →28
.258AVG ←.242
Current Season
JakeCategoryOneil
4HR →13
20R →42
25RBI →41
10SB →19
.288AVG ←.255
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Oneil Cruz
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Oneil Cruz: 19 HR / 63 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).