Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryJesús
5HR →13
38R ←34
48RBI →50
19SB ←2
.258AVG →.284
Current Season
JakeCategoryJesús
4HR →6
20R ←19
25RBI →28
10SB ←1
.288AVG.287
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Jesús Sánchez
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Jesús Sánchez: 13 HR / 34 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).