MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jesús Sánchez
299 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Jesús Sánchez

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.322) — BABIP 0.316 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .245HR 1R 4RBI 6SB 0

Sánchez is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable underneath.

His expected wOBA is .322, seven points above the league average of .315, which is close enough to the middle that there is no edge in either direction. His actual wOBA is .320, so his line is tracking his skill almost exactly — no bounces propping him up, none dragging him down. The one number pulling his average higher is his BABIP of .316, above the .295 league mark, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 204, so expect some of that to come back. The underlying contact is mildly positive: 91.0 mph average exit velocity and a 46.1% hard-hit rate, both above league, and the xwOBA has been stepping up across the sample. The walks are low and the chase rate is high, which caps the upside. Nothing to sell, nothing to chase. Hold. 1 HR / 4 R / 6 RBI over the ROS is a deep-league streamer's counting line — a drop-tier tax, no action needed.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.8%−1.0%vs his ~11.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.322)
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.316 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.0 mph
91.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +2.0 mphvs his norm —
204 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.1%
46.1%*
lg avg 40.0% +6.1%vs his norm —
204 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.8%
norm10.8%*
lg avg 8.0% +2.8%vs his norm −1.0%
204 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.322
.322*
lg avg .315 +.007vs his norm —
299 / 160 PA
wOBA.320
believable since Jun 9.320*
lg avg .315 +.005vs his norm —
299 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.4%
23.4%*
lg avg 22.0% +1.4%vs his norm —
299 / 60 PA
Walk %5.7%
5.7%*
lg avg 8.5% −2.8%vs his norm —
299 / 120 PA
BABIP.316
norm.316*
lg avg .295 +.021vs his norm +.017 BABIP is above his ~.299 normexpect it to fall.
204 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 11.0% +3.7%vs his norm —
299 / 50 PA
Chase %37.7%
37.7%*
lg avg 28.5% +9.2%vs his norm —
299 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.8%→11.3%signal1 HR — Barrel% 10.8% (signal) lifted to career ~11.8% → projected 11.3%.
BABIP 0.316→0.298 regressednoise.245 AVG — BABIP 0.316 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.292 (xBA 0.255) → 0.298.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~38 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~38 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 57 G) over ~38 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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