Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryJJ
5HR →11
38R →44
48RBI →63
19SB ←2
.258AVG ←.241
Current Season
JakeCategoryJJ
4HR →10
20R ←19
25RBI →27
10SB ←1
.288AVG →.301
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
JJ Bleday
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.402)
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. JJ Bleday: 11 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).