261 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Oneil Cruz
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Cruz is a buy — elite contact, no luck.
His expected wOBA is .346, .031 above league average, and his sample of 261 plate appearances makes that number reliable. His actual wOBA is essentially the same at .347, so there is no luck inflating his line. The contact quality is elite and already stable: 96.1 mph average exit velocity, 60.4% hard-hit rate, and 16.7% barrels, all well above league. His strikeout rate is high at 34.9%, which caps his batting average but does not undermine the batted-ball skill. The xwOBA is running 16 points above his career baseline of .330, and both his hard-hit rate and xwOBA have been stepping up through the sample. The bat is real and the league is pricing the production. Buy.
Buy
med0.66
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.346, +0.031 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+7.1 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL144 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %60.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+20.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL144 / 50 BBE
Barrel %16.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL144 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.346
lg avg .315 ▲+.031trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 160 PA
wOBA.347
lg avg .315 ▲+.032trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 200 PA
Strikeout %34.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 60 PA
Walk %8.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 120 PA
BABIP.359
lg avg .295 ▲+.064too early to trust
NOISE144 / 800 BIP