MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Oneil Cruz
359 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Oneil Cruz

PIT·CF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xwOBA 0.352, +0.037 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 34% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.391 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.67
ROSHR 1AVG .228R 7RBI 7SB 3

Cruz is a buy — the contact is real, the average will give a little back.

He is hitting the ball harder than he ever has, and the hard-hit rate is still climbing across the sample. That contact quality is the story: 95.2 mph average exit velocity and a 55.5% hard-hit rate, both far above league, on 191 batted balls — past the point where those numbers become reliable. His expected wOBA is .352, .037 above league and running north of his .330 career baseline, and he has the plate appearances for that to hold. The caveat is his BABIP, .391 against a league average of .295 on only 191 balls in play, so some of the batting average will regress. His 34.5% strikeout rate is stable, high, and climbing, which caps the floor in a cold week. The skill underneath is real. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %16.8%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~16.7% career norm
  • wOBA.363—+.028 ▲vs his ~.335 career norm
  • xwOBA.352—+.022 ▲vs his ~.330 career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.352, +0.037 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.391 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+6.2 mphvs his norm —
191 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %55.5%
55.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+15.5%vs his norm —
191 / 50 BBE
Barrel %16.8%
norm16.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.8%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
191 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.352
norm.352*
lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm +.022 ▲
359 / 160 PA
wOBA.363
norm.363*
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm +.028 ▲
359 / 200 PA
Strikeout %34.5%
34.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.5%vs his norm —
359 / 60 PA
Walk %11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
359 / 120 PA
BABIP.391
norm.391*
lg avg .295 ▲+.096vs his norm +.091 ▲BABIP is above his ~.300 norm — expect it to fall.
191 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.9%
15.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
359 / 50 PA
Chase %31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
359 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 16.8%→16.7%signal1 HR — Barrel% 16.8% (signal) tempered to career ~16.7% → projected 16.7%.
BABIP 0.391→0.338 regressednoise.228 AVG — BABIP 0.391 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.322 (xBA 0.247) → 0.338.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~45 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~45 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (19 in 58 G) over ~45 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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