Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryWilyer
5HR →16
38R →40
48RBI ←37
19SB ←6
.258AVG →.282
Current Season
JakeCategoryWilyer
4HR →6
20R →26
25RBI ←24
10SB ←4
.288AVG ←.284
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Wilyer Abreu
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.349, +0.034 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Wilyer Abreu: 16 HR / 40 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).