Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryJames
5HR →22
38R →78
48RBI →57
19SB ←15
.258AVG ←.255
Current Season
JakeCategoryJames
4HR →16
20R →53
25RBI →39
10SB10
.288AVG ←.272
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
James Wood
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.432, +0.117 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. James Wood: 22 HR / 78 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).