Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryJulio
5HR →15
38R →49
48RBI ←45
19SB ←8
.258AVG ←.252
Current Season
JakeCategoryJulio
4HR →12
20R →32
25RBI →30
10SB ←5
.288AVG ←.259
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Julio Rodríguez
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Julio Rodríguez: 15 HR / 49 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).