Rest of Season Projection
CarsonCategoryJackson
12HR12
43R ←36
33RBI ←31
14SB14
.276AVG ←.251
Current Season
CarsonCategoryJackson
4HR ←2
28R ←13
21RBI ←11
9SB ←5
.248AVG →.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carson Benge
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.345, +0.030 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Carson Benge: 12 HR / 43 R. Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).