Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryMichael
12HR →16
36R →44
31RBI →56
14SB ←5
.251AVG →.291
Current Season
JacksonCategoryMichael
2HR →13
13R →28
11RBI →36
5SB ←3
.276AVG →.307
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Michael Harris II
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.385, +0.070 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Michael Harris II: 16 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).