Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryJuan
12HR →21
36R →48
31RBI →52
14SB ←9
.251AVG →.279
Current Season
JacksonCategoryJuan
2HR →13
13R →27
11RBI →29
5SB5
.276AVG →.297
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Juan Soto
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.411, +0.096 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Juan Soto: 21 HR / 48 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).