MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Juan Soto
482 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Juan Soto

NYM·LF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.411, +0.096 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.high 0.79
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Soto is a buy — elite contact and the discipline to match

His expected wOBA is .411, .096 above the league average of .315, and 482 plate appearances is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact quality backs it: 48.1% hard-hit and 13.9% barrels, both well above league, with a hard-hit rate that has been stepping up across the sample. The discipline is just as strong — he strikes out 13.5% of the time against a league average of 22.0%, walks 16.2%, and chases just 20.9% of pitches. His actual wOBA of .385 sits slightly below his expected wOBA, so the surface line is not being propped up by luck; if anything, it undersells the skill. He is hitting the ball like a star and controlling the zone like one. The production is earned across the board. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %13.9%—−3.1% ▼vs his ~17.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.411, +0.096 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.6 mph
92.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
337 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.1%
48.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
337 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.9%
norm13.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm −3.1% ▼
337 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.411
believable since May 26.411*
lg avg .315 ▲+.096vs his norm —
482 / 160 PA
wOBA.385
.385*
lg avg .315 ▲+.070vs his norm —
482 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.5%vs his norm —
482 / 60 PA
Walk %16.2%
16.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
482 / 120 PA
BABIP.268
norm.268*
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm −.020 ▼BABIP is below his ~.288 norm — expect it to rise.
337 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
482 / 50 PA
Chase %20.9%
20.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.6%vs his norm —
482 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.9%→15.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 13.9% (signal) lifted to career ~17.0% → projected 15.0%.
BABIP 0.268→0.273 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.268 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.276 (xBA 0.295) → 0.273.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (5 in 43 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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