Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryRyan
12HR ←9
36R →49
31RBI →53
14SB ←2
.251AVG →.259
Current Season
JacksonCategoryRyan
2HR →8
13R →28
11RBI →30
5SB ←1
.276AVG →.294
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Ryan O'Hearn
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Ryan O'Hearn: 9 HR / 49 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).