Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryJesús
12HR →13
36R ←33
31RBI →48
14SB ←2
.251AVG →.285
Current Season
JacksonCategoryJesús
2HR →6
13R →19
11RBI →28
5SB ←1
.276AVG →.287
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Jesús Sánchez
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.343, +0.028 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Jesús Sánchez: 13 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).