Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryWilyer
12HR →16
36R →38
31RBI →35
14SB ←6
.251AVG →.285
Current Season
JacksonCategoryWilyer
2HR →6
13R →26
11RBI →24
5SB ←4
.276AVG →.284
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Wilyer Abreu
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Wilyer Abreu: 16 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).