Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryCorbin
27HR ←14
65R ←57
57RBI ←43
8SB →11
.254AVG →.266
Current Season
AaronCategoryCorbin
17HR ←7
43R ←37
38RBI ←28
5SB →7
.248AVG →.286
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Judge
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Corbin Carroll
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.351 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.364 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Aaron Judge: 27 HR / 65 R. Corbin Carroll: 14 HR / 57 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).