Is Aaron Judge a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Aaron Judge's rest-of-season outlook?

20.9% barrels and 57.5% hard-hit bury the 29.8% K rate.

285 PA · week 31

this weekBUY

last weekBUY

Aaron Judge

NYY·RF

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Buy stable xwOBA 0.396, +0.081 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor; add now.high 0.76

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Judge is a buy — the contact backs up every bit of the line

His hard-hit rate is 57.5% against a league average of 40.0%, and that number has climbed across the sample — 153 batted balls, well past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. His expected wOBA is .396, .081 above league average, and it is rising too. His actual wOBA is .372, below the expected mark, so the line is not being propped up by batted-ball luck. The strikeout rate is the one drag: 29.8%, high and trending up, which caps how high the batting average can go some weeks. Everything else says the production is earned, and a steady 15.1% walk rate keeps the floor from falling out. The bat is doing exactly what the underlying numbers say it should. Buy.

VS His Norm

Barrel %20.9%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~26.2% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.396, +0.081 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo94.0 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+5.0 mphvs his norm —

153 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %57.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+17.5%vs his norm —

153 / 50 BBE

Barrel %20.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+12.9%vs his norm −5.3% ▼

153 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.396

lg avg .315 ▲+.081vs his norm —

285 / 160 PA

wOBA.372

lg avg .315 ▲+.057vs his norm —

285 / 200 PA

Strikeout %29.8%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —

285 / 60 PA

Walk %15.1%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —

285 / 120 PA

BABIP.289

lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm −.066 ▼BABIP is below his ~.355 norm — expect it to rise.

153 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %14.2%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —

285 / 50 PA

Chase %26.4%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —

285 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 20.9%→23.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 20.9% (signal) lifted to career ~26.2% → projected 23.9%.

BABIP 0.289→0.279 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.289 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.277 (xBA 0.258) → 0.279.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (5 in 59 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons