MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Aaron Judge
261 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
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Aaron Judge

NYY·RF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy stable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.high 0.80
ROSHR 9AVG .233R 33RBI 29SB 4

Judge is a buy — elite contact, no luck needed.

His expected wOBA is .415, a full 100 points above league average, and at 261 plate appearances that number is rock-solid. His actual wOBA sits 30 points lower, which means his production is actually held back by bad BABIP luck — the skill is if anything understated. The contact quality is elite: 94.1 mph exit velo, 57.3% hard-hit rate, and 21.7% barrels, all well above league and stable past their thresholds. Both his hard-hit rate and xwOBA have been stepping up across the sample. He does strike out 27.6% of the time, but that is a known part of his game and does not erase the plus-plus power and on-base skills. His chase rate is below league average too. There is no luck inflating this line; the numbers are earned. Buy. 9 HR, 33 R, 29 RBI, 4 SB, .233 AVG — a deep-league asset with elite skills, so acquire while the batting average hides the power.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %21.7%—−4.5% ▼vs his ~26.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo94.1 mph
94.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+5.1 mphvs his norm —
143 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %57.3%
57.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+17.3%vs his norm —
143 / 50 BBE
Barrel %21.7%
norm21.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+13.7%vs his norm −4.5% ▼
143 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.415
.415*
lg avg .315 ▲+.100vs his norm —
261 / 160 PA
wOBA.385
.385*
lg avg .315 ▲+.070vs his norm —
261 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
261 / 60 PA
Walk %16.1%
16.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+7.6%vs his norm —
261 / 120 PA
BABIP.286
norm.286*
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm −.069 ▼BABIP is below his ~.355 norm — expect it to rise.
143 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
13.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
261 / 50 PA
Chase %25.8%
25.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
261 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 21.7%→24.3%signal9 HR — Barrel% 21.7% (signal) lifted to career ~26.2% → projected 24.3%.
BABIP 0.286→0.294 regressednoise.233 AVG — BABIP 0.286 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.296 (xBA 0.270) → 0.294.
on-base + lineup33 R — his run rate over ~201 projected PA.
slugging + lineup29 RBI — his RBI rate over ~201 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (5 in 59 G) over ~201 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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