261 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Aaron Judge
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Judge is a buy — elite contact, earned production.
His hard-hit rate has climbed throughout the season and now sits at 57.3%, well above the league average of 40.0%, and the 143 batted balls he has put in play make that number reliable. His expected wOBA is .415 — .100 above league average — and with 261 plate appearances, that mark is also stable. His actual wOBA is .389, slightly lower than expected, which means the production is earned; there is no luck inflating the line. The 27.6% strikeout rate is high, but the elite contact and barrel rate (21.7% barrels) more than compensate. Buy.
Buy
high0.80
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo94.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+5.1 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL143 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %57.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+17.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL143 / 50 BBE
Barrel %21.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+13.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL143 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.415
lg avg .315 ▲+.100trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 160 PA
wOBA.389
lg avg .315 ▲+.074trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 60 PA
Walk %16.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+7.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL261 / 120 PA
BABIP.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009too early to trust
NOISE143 / 800 BIP