Is Aaron Judge a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Aaron Judge's rest-of-season outlook?

21.5% barrels and 57.6% hard-hit carry the 28% K rate.

264 PA · week 25

this weekBUY

last weekBUY

Aaron Judge

NYY·RF

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Buy stable xwOBA 0.411, +0.096 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 28% is stable and high, caps the floor; add now.high 0.79

ROSHR 1AVG .219R 7RBI 6SB 1

Judge is a buy — the contact is elite and climbing.

His expected wOBA is .411, .096 above the league average of .315, and at 264 plate appearances that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. His contact quality has been stepping up across the sample: 94.1 mph average exit velocity, a 57.6% hard-hit rate, and 21.5% barrels, all far above league and all based on enough batted balls to trust. His actual wOBA of .381 sits below his expected mark, so the bounces have actually been unkind rather than the reverse. The one caveat is a 28% strikeout rate that has also been climbing — that caps the batting average floor, not the power. The bat is doing exactly what the numbers say. Buy.

VS His Norm

Barrel %21.5%—−4.7% ▼vs his ~26.2% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.411, +0.096 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo94.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+5.1 mphvs his norm —

144 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %57.6%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+17.6%vs his norm —

144 / 50 BBE

Barrel %21.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+13.5%vs his norm −4.7% ▼

144 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.411

lg avg .315 ▲+.096vs his norm —

264 / 160 PA

wOBA.381

lg avg .315 ▲+.066vs his norm —

264 / 200 PA

Strikeout %28.0%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —

264 / 60 PA

Walk %15.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —

264 / 120 PA

BABIP.283

lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm −.072 ▼BABIP is below his ~.355 norm — expect it to rise.

144 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —

264 / 50 PA

Chase %25.5%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —

264 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 21.5%→24.2%signal1 HR — Barrel% 21.5% (signal) lifted to career ~26.2% → projected 24.2%.

BABIP 0.283→0.290 regressednoise.219 AVG — BABIP 0.283 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.291 (xBA 0.267) → 0.290.

on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~45 projected PA.

slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~45 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (5 in 59 G) over ~45 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons