Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryJake
10HR ←5
47R ←37
39RBI →46
6SB →18
.304AVG ←.256
Current Season
BrandonCategoryJake
5HR ←4
29R ←20
24RBI →25
4SB →10
.317AVG ←.288
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.411 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.337 is 0.031 below the surface — regression coming
Jake McCarthy
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.318)
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 47 R. Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 37 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).