Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryJarren
10HR →12
49R ←45
40RBI →51
7SB →16
.302AVG ←.219
Current Season
BrandonCategoryJarren
5HR →10
29R29
24RBI →33
4SB →10
.317AVG ←.219
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.308)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Jarren Duran: 12 HR / 45 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).