Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryBrandon
27HR ←10
65R ←49
57RBI ←40
8SB ←7
.254AVG →.302
Current Season
AaronCategoryBrandon
17HR ←5
43R ←29
38RBI ←24
5SB ←4
.248AVG →.317
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Judge
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.415, +0.100 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Aaron Judge: 27 HR / 65 R. Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).