MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mike Trout
354 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Mike Trout

LAA·CF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.275 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.67
ROSHR 9AVG .235R 34RBI 23SB 4

Trout is a buy-low — the bat is still elite, the BABIP will correct.

Mike Trout's actual wOBA is .374, which is strong but well below his expected wOBA of .409. The gap is BABIP: .275 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 196 — that gap is luck, not skill. Meanwhile, his contact quality is exceptional and stable: hard-hit rate at 49.0% and stepping up across the sample, barrel rate at 19.9%, both well above league. He also walks nearly 19% of the time and chases fewer pitches than almost anyone. The elite skill set is intact and the cold surface is just noise. The league is pricing the .374 wOBA; the .409 xwOBA is the real. Buy low. 9 HR, 34 R, 23 RBI, 4 SB, .235 AVG — a deep-league buy on suppressed counting stats.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %19.9%—+3.8% ▲vs his ~16.1% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.275 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.7 mph
90.7 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
196 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %49.0%
49.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+9.0%vs his norm —
196 / 50 BBE
Barrel %19.9%
norm19.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+11.9%vs his norm +3.8% ▲
196 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.409
.409*
lg avg .315 ▲+.094vs his norm —
354 / 160 PA
wOBA.374
.374*
lg avg .315 ▲+.059vs his norm —
354 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.6%
24.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
354 / 60 PA
Walk %18.9%
18.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —
354 / 120 PA
BABIP.275
norm.275*
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm −.028 ▼BABIP is below his ~.303 norm — expect it to rise.
196 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
9.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
354 / 50 PA
Chase %19.8%
19.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−8.7%vs his norm —
354 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 19.9%→18.0%signal9 HR — Barrel% 19.9% (signal) tempered to career ~16.1% → projected 18.0%.
BABIP 0.275→0.278 regressednoise.235 AVG — BABIP 0.275 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.279 (xBA 0.262) → 0.278.
on-base + lineup34 R — his run rate over ~204 projected PA.
slugging + lineup23 RBI — his RBI rate over ~204 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (5 in 60 G) over ~204 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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