
591 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY
Brandon Lowe
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.324); strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.319 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .221R 7RBI 7SB 0
Lowe is a hold — average skill, the strikeouts cap the ceiling.
ROS projects HR 14 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .260 YTD → .221 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %11.5%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~12.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.324)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.319 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
364 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
364 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
364 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.324
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
591 / 160 PA
wOBA.348
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —
591 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
591 / 60 PA
Walk %9.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
591 / 120 PA
BABIP.319
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm +.031 ▲BABIP is above his ~.288 norm — expect it to fall.
364 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
591 / 50 PA
Chase %33.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
591 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.5%→11.7%signal1 HR — Barrel% 11.5% (signal) lifted to career ~12.1% → projected 11.7%.
BABIP 0.319→0.281 regressednoise.221 AVG — BABIP 0.319 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.250 (xBA 0.239) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 54 G) over ~44 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.