655 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Brandon Lowe
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.319 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.63 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Lowe is a buy — earned production with a little luck on top
Stable, above-average skill — but an elevated, unstable BABIP means some of the average will give back. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %12.4%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~12.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.319 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
402 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
402 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
402 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
655 / 160 PA
wOBA.355
lg avg .315 ▲+.040vs his norm —
655 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
655 / 60 PA
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
655 / 120 PA
BABIP.319
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm +.031 ▲BABIP is above his ~.288 norm — expect it to fall.
402 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —
655 / 50 PA
Chase %33.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
655 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.4%→12.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 12.4% (signal) tempered to career ~12.1% → projected 12.3%.
BABIP 0.319→0.285 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.319 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.251 (xBA 0.240) → 0.285.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 54 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.