MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Paul Skenes
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Paul Skenes

PIT·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xERA 3.24, 0.86 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.86
ROSK 15ERA 3.24WHIP 1.21W 1–2SV 0

Skenes is a buy — the stuff is real and the sample proves it.

His expected ERA is 3.24 — 0.86 below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced 640 batters, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing is propping it up. He strikes out 28.3% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and his walk rate of 7.0% is below league. His swinging-strike rate sits at 14.2%, which tells you the misses are earned, and he is averaging 96.9 mph on his fastball, nearly three mph above league. Both his expected ERA and his velocity have been stepping in the right direction across the sample. He is getting outs the hard way, with no luck to give back. Buy. 15 K and a 3.24 ERA make him a deep-league asset; he'll bank strikeouts on a bad Pirate team, so acquire now while he's cheap.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.3%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~30.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.0%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.24, 0.86 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.2%
38.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
403 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
403 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.280
.280*
lg avg .315 ▼−.035vs his norm —
640 / 200 TBF
xERA3.24
3.24*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.86vs his norm —
640 / 200 TBF
ERA3.83
3.83*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.27vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
155 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.3%
norm28.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
640 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
norm7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
640 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.306
.306*
lg avg .295 ▲+.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
403 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
14.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
640 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.5%
32.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
640 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
96.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
2623 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.3%→28.9%signal15 K — K% 28.3% (signal) lifted to career ~30.7% → projected 28.9% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 3.24signal3.24 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.24 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep15 K ROS, 3.24 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups