MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Paul Skenes
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Paul Skenes

PIT·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xERA 2.71, 1.39 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 67ERA 2.71WHIP 1.10W 3–7SV 0

Skenes is a buy — elite chase, even better velo.

His expected ERA is 2.71 — 1.39 runs below league average — and he has faced enough batters for that to be his true skill level. The number has actually been stepping down across the sample, meaning he is getting better. His fastball velocity is 96.9 mph, nearly three ticks above league, and it has been stepping up. He also strikes out 29.5% of batters and walks only 5.5%, with a swinging-strike rate of 14.1% — all well above average and stable. The stuff is elite, the metrics are stable, and the production is earned. Buy. 67 K with a 2.71 ERA and elite peripherals make him a clear asset — buy now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.5%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~30.7% career norm
  • Walk %5.5%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~5.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.71, 1.39 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
37.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
278 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
278 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.258
.258*
lg avg .315 ▼−.057vs his norm —
440 / 200 TBF
xERA2.71
2.71*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.39vs his norm —
440 / 200 TBF
ERA3.57
3.57*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.53vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
108.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.5%
norm29.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
440 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.5%
norm5.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
440 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
.286*
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
278 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.1%
14.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
440 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
440 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
96.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
1810 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.5%→29.9%signal67 K — K% 29.5% (signal) lifted to career ~30.7% → projected 29.9% over ~58 remaining IP.
xERA 2.71signal2.71 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.71 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.5% + contactsignal1.10 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.10 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard67 K ROS, 2.71 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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