MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Paul Skenes
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Paul Skenes

PIT·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xERA 3.30, 0.80 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.84
ROSK 0ERA 3.30WHIP 1.19W 0–0SV 0

Skenes is a buy — the strikeouts and the fastball are real.

His expected ERA is 3.30, eight-tenths of a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The strikeout rate tells the same story: 28.1% of batters, well above league, with a walk rate of 6.9% below it — that combination is a skill, not a run of good sequencing. The fastball is sitting at 96.8 mph, nearly three miles an hour above league, and the velocity has climbed across the sample rather than faded. Nothing here is being propped up by luck: his expected wOBA allowed is .281 against a .315 league average, and his hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are both slightly better than league. The expected ERA has been stepping down, which means the contact he allows keeps getting weaker. This is the level he is at. Buy. Projected 0 K / 3.30 ERA / 1.19 WHIP, deep-league asset only — stash the skill now and the ratios pay later.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.1%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~30.7% career norm
  • Walk %6.9%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.30, 0.80 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.6%
38.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
451 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
451 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.281
.281*
lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —
712 / 200 TBF
xERA3.30
3.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.80vs his norm —
712 / 200 TBF
ERA3.82
3.82*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.28vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
174.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.1%
norm28.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
712 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
712 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.294
.294*
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
451 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
712 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
32.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
712 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
96.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
2890 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.1%→28.7%signal0 K — K% 28.1% (signal) lifted to career ~30.7% → projected 28.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.30signal3.30 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.30 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.19 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.30 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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