Rest of Season Projection
ChrisCategoryPaul
136K ←129
3.18ERA →2.28
1.11WHIP →1.04
9–19W ←7–14
0SV0
Current Season
ChrisCategoryPaul
80K ←75
2.01ERA ←2.89
0.94WHIP →0.86
8W ←6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chris Sale
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.18 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Sale leads in K (136 vs 129), but Skenes outpaces in ERA (2.28 vs 3.18). The ERA gap drives the sell-high verdict on Sale and the buy call on Skenes.