Rest of Season Projection
ChrisCategoryJesús
136K ←129
3.18ERA →3.16
1.11WHIP ←1.25
9–19W ←4–9
0SV0
Current Season
ChrisCategoryJesús
80K ←78
2.01ERA ←4.30
0.94WHIP ←1.31
8W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chris Sale
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.18 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
Jesús Luzardo
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.360 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Chris Sale: 136 K / 3.18 ERA vs Jesús Luzardo: 129 K / 3.16 ERA — nearly identical. The verdicts split: sell Sale's surface, buy Luzardo's underlying skill.