MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chris Sale
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Chris Sale

ATL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.97, 1.13 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.97WHIP 1.08W 0–0SV 0

Sale is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and backed by a 2.97 xERA.

His expected ERA is 2.97, more than a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact quality backs it up: a .267 expected wOBA allowed and a 35.1% hard-hit rate allowed, both well better than league, on a sample past the stabilization point. The strikeout and walk rates tell the same story — 30.9% strikeouts and a 4.8% walk rate, each far on the good side of league. His fastball is at 96.1 mph and has been stepping up, and his expected ERA has been stepping down. Nothing here is being propped up by luck. The skill is his. Buy. A 2.97 ERA and 1.08 WHIP make him an asset; acquire now before the market catches a fully healthy Sale.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %4.8%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~5.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %30.9%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~30.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.97, 1.13 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
402 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
402 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.267
.267*
lg avg .315 ▼−.048vs his norm —
648 / 200 TBF
xERA2.97
2.97*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.13vs his norm —
648 / 200 TBF
ERA2.16
2.16*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.94vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
162.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.9%
norm30.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.9%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
648 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.8%
norm4.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
648 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.304
.304*
lg avg .295 ▲+.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
402 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
648 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.5%
36.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
648 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
2574 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.9%→30.9%signal0 K — K% 30.9% (signal) tempered to career ~30.7% → projected 30.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.97signal2.97 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.97 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 4.8% + contactsignal1.08 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.08 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.97 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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