week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
————————
Chris Sale
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Sale is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.18 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL162 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL162 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL265 / 200 TBF
xERA3.18
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.92trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL265 / 200 TBF
ERA2.02
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.08too early to trust
NOISE67 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL265 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL265 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.258
lg avg .295 ▼−.037too early to trust
NOISE162 / 800 BIP