MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chris Sale
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Chris Sale

ATL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.06, 1.04 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.91
ROSK 16ERA 3.06WHIP 1.09W 1–2SV 0

Sale is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and the sample proves it.

His expected ERA is 3.06 — 1.04 below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced 601 batters, well past the 200 needed for that number to be reliable. The skill underneath is earned, not lucky: he strikes out 30.6% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and walks just 4.8% against 8.0%. That combination does not happen by accident at this sample size. The contact suppression is real too — .272 expected wOBA allowed, .043 below league, with hard-hit rate at 35.2% and barrels at 5.9%, both better than average across 375 batted balls. His fastball is sitting at 96.1 mph, above the 94.0 league mark, and both his velocity and his expected ERA are trending the right direction across the sample. There is no luck story propping this up. Buy. 16 K and a 3.06 ERA rest-of-season make Sale a standard-league asset — acquire now before the market catches up.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %4.8%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~5.8% career norm
  • Strikeout %30.6%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~30.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.06, 1.04 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.2%
35.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
375 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
375 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.272
.272*
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —
601 / 200 TBF
xERA3.06
3.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.04vs his norm —
601 / 200 TBF
ERA2.10
2.10*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.00vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
150 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.6%
norm30.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
601 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.8%
norm4.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
601 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.310
.310*
lg avg .295 ▲+.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
375 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
15.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
601 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.9%
36.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.4%vs his norm —
601 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
2383 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.6%→30.6%signal16 K — K% 30.6% (signal) held to career ~30.7% → projected 30.6% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 3.06signal3.06 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.06 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 4.8% + contactsignal1.09 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.09 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard16 K ROS, 3.06 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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