Rest of Season Projection
ChrisCategoryKyle
136K ←109
3.18ERA →3.09
1.11WHIP ←1.16
9–19W ←8–17
0SV0
Current Season
ChrisCategoryKyle
80K ←61
2.01ERA →1.57
0.94WHIP ←1.03
8W ←6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chris Sale
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.18 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
Kyle Harrison
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.09, 1.01 below league — production is earned
Chris Sale: 136 K / 3.18 ERA. Kyle Harrison: 109 K / 3.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).