MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Harrison
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Kyle Harrison

MIL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.01); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.01WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0

Harrison is a hold — league-average run prevention, nothing unstable

His expected ERA is 4.01, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact-quality numbers agree: his expected wOBA allowed is .308 against a league average of .315, his hard-hit rate allowed is 38.8% against 40.0%, and his barrel rate allowed is 8.1% against 8.0%. Nothing there is out of line. His strikeout rate is the one number that stands apart — 27.9%, well above the league's 22.0% — and his walk rate of 7.1% is a touch better than league. The expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which points to the skill holding rather than luck propping it up. There is no suppressed BABIP-against to give back and no inflated line waiting to fall. He is what the numbers say he is. Hold. 0 K / 4.01 ERA / 1.26 WHIP is droppable, streaming-only filler — hold the read, not the roster spot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.9%—+3.7% ▲vs his ~24.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.1%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.01)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
320 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
320 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
believable since May 26.308*
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
505 / 200 TBF
xERA4.01
4.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.09vs his norm —
505 / 200 TBF
ERA4.20
4.20*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.10vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
115.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.9%
norm27.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm +3.7% ▲
505 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
505 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
320 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
505 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
505 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
94.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
2106 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.9%→26.9%signal0 K — K% 27.9% (signal) tempered to career ~24.2% → projected 26.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.01signal4.01 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.01 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.310 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.01 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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