MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Harrison
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Kyle Harrison

MIL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.73, 0.37 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.71
ROSK 14ERA 3.73WHIP 1.21W 1–2SV 0

Harrison is a buy — his strikeout skill is real and earned.

His xERA is 3.73, .37 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. That expected ERA is not being held down by luck, and he has been stepping it down across the sample. The skill driving it is a strikeout rate of 28.5%, well above the league's 22%, backed by a swinging-strike rate of 13.7% and a chase rate of 32.8% — batters are swinging at pitches out of the zone and missing. His fastball sits at 94.7 mph, above league and climbing. He walks just 7% of batters and his expected wOBA allowed is .299, below the .315 league average. He misses bats, throws hard, and limits free passes. Buy. The 14 K and 3.73 ERA come with just 1-2 W, so target him as a deep-league asset where strikeout volume still plays.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.5%—+4.3% ▲vs his ~24.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.0%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.73, 0.37 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.0%
38.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
300 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
300 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
believable since May 26.299*
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
471 / 200 TBF
xERA3.73
3.73*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37vs his norm —
471 / 200 TBF
ERA3.66
3.66*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.44vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.5%
norm28.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm +4.3% ▲
471 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
norm7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
471 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.314
.314*
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
300 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.7%
13.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
471 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
471 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
94.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
1976 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.5%→27.2%signal14 K — K% 28.5% (signal) tempered to career ~24.2% → projected 27.2% over ~12 remaining…
xERA 3.73signal3.73 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.73 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep14 K ROS, 3.73 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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