MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kyle Harrison
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Kyle Harrison

MIL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy stable xERA 3.14, 0.96 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.89
ROSK 60ERA 3.14WHIP 1.12W 4–9SV 0

Harrison is a buy — skill metrics point to a real breakout.

His expected ERA is 3.14 — nearly a full run below the league average of 4.10 — and the sample of 341 batters faced is well past the stabilization point, so this number is reliable. His strikeout rate (29.6%) and walk rate (5.9%) both sit comfortably above and below league averages, respectively, while his swinging-strike rate (14.4%) and chase rate (33.1%) confirm elite stuff. The contact he allows is also suppressed: a 36.6% hard-hit rate and 6.5% barrel rate, both better than league. And his fastball velocity has been trending up across the sample, now sitting at 95.0 mph. There is no luck story here — his 27.7% xwOBA allowed and 3.14 xERA say the numbers are earned. His performance is real and well-supported by underlying skill. Buy. Even with a 4-9 W mark, his 60 K / 3.14 ERA line projects a high-floor asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.6%—+5.4% ▲vs his ~24.2% career norm
  • Walk %5.9%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.14, 0.96 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
36.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
216 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
216 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.277
.277*
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —
341 / 200 TBF
xERA3.14
3.14*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.96vs his norm —
341 / 200 TBF
ERA3.01
3.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.09vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
83.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.6%
norm29.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm +5.4% ▲
341 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.9%
norm5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
341 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
.291*
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
216 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
341 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
33.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
341 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
95.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
1457 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.6%→27.6%signal60 K — K% 29.6% (signal) tempered to career ~24.2% → projected 27.6% over ~54 remaining…
xERA 3.14signal3.14 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.14 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.9% + contactsignal1.12 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.12 skill WHIP.
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard60 K ROS, 3.14 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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