week 10
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
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Kyle Harrison
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Harrison is a buy — elite xERA without luck inflation.
His xERA sits at 3.09, a full run below league average, and the sample of 206 batters faced is past the point where this number becomes reliable. He is suppressing contact at an elite level: hard-hit rate allowed is a shockingly low 28.9% against a 40% league average, barrel rate is 4.7% versus 8.0%, and his expected wOBA allowed is just .280. None of these are flukes — all have cleared their stabilization thresholds. Strikeouts run hot at 29.6% and walks are controlled at 6.8%. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, suggesting the skill is sharpening. The surface production is earned, not lucky. Buy.
Buy
high0.90
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.09, 1.01 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL128 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL128 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.280
lg avg .315 ▼−.035trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL206 / 200 TBF
xERA3.09
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.01trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL206 / 200 TBF
ERA1.57
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.53too early to trust
NOISE51.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL206 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL206 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
lg avg .295 ▼−.007too early to trust
NOISE128 / 800 BIP