Is Jesús Luzardo a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Jesús Luzardo's rest-of-season outlook?

96.8 mph heat, 30% Ks, 2.83 xERA — nothing fluky here.

week 25

this weekBUY

last weekBUY-LOW

Jesús Luzardo

PHI·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026

Buy stable xERA 2.83, 1.27 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92

ROSK 15ERA 2.83WHIP 1.17W 1–1SV 0

Luzardo is a buy — his skill is stable and earned.

His expected ERA is 2.83, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His strikeout rate is 30.4%, more than eight points above league, and his swinging-strike rate is 14.8% against a league average of 11.0%. Those numbers say the stuff is real. His hard-hit rate allowed is 33.2%, well below the 40.0% league average, and his barrel rate allowed is 5.9% against 8.0% league, so he is limiting quality contact. His fastball velocity is 96.8 mph, above league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His expected ERA has been stepping down at the same time. There is no luck propping this up. Buy. 15 K and a 2.83 ERA make him an asset to acquire now — that projection is a strikeout window worth buying.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %30.4%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~26.8% career norm
Walk %7.2%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.83, 1.27 below league — production is earned
p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed33.2%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm —

443 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed5.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —

443 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.262

lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —

727 / 200 TBF

xERA2.83

lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.27vs his norm —

727 / 200 TBF

ERA2.87

lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.23vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

178.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %30.4%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.4%vs his norm +3.6% ▲

727 / 70 TBF

Walk %7.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −0.8% ▼

727 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.297

lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

443 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %14.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —

727 / 60 TBF

Chase %33.7%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —

727 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo96.8 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —

2860 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 30.4%→29.6%signal15 K — K% 30.4% (signal) tempered to career ~26.8% → projected 29.6% over ~13 remaining…

xERA 2.83signal2.83 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.83 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…

BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.17 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP.

run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterstandard15 K ROS, 2.83 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons