MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jesús Luzardo
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW

Jesús Luzardo

PHI·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.83, 1.27 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.83WHIP 1.16W 0–0SV 0

Luzardo is a buy — earned run prevention, and the velocity is climbing.

His contact quality allowed has erased hitters all season: a .261 expected wOBA allowed against a league average of .315, across 730 batters faced, past the point where that number becomes reliable. The expected ERA of 2.83 sits 1.27 runs below league average, and it has stepped down across the sample rather than drifted up. Nobody is getting lucky on his behalf — the strikeout rate is 30.3%, the swinging-strike rate is 14.8%, and the chase rate of 33.7% is five points above league. His fastball averages 96.8 mph, nearly three above league, and it has climbed. A hard-hit rate of 33.2% against a 40.0% league average says hitters are not squaring him up. This is the level he is at. Buy. A 2.83 ERA / 1.16 WHIP arm like this is an asset in any format — go acquire before the market corrects.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %30.3%—+3.5% ▲vs his ~26.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.1%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.83, 1.27 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.2%
33.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm —
446 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
446 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.261
.261*
lg avg .315 ▼−.054vs his norm —
730 / 200 TBF
xERA2.83
2.83*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.27vs his norm —
730 / 200 TBF
ERA2.85
2.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.25vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
179.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.3%
norm30.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm +3.5% ▲
730 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
730 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
.295*
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
446 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.8%
14.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
730 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
730 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
96.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
2864 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.3%→29.5%signal0 K — K% 30.3% (signal) tempered to career ~26.8% → projected 29.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.83signal2.83 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.83 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.16 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.16 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.83 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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