MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jesús Luzardo
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Jesús Luzardo

PHI·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low luck-free xERA 2.96 sits 1.14 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.331 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.77
ROSK 66ERA 2.96WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 0

Luzardo is a buy-low — the real arm hides behind a bloated ERA.

His ERA is 3.51, but the number doing the inflation is his BABIP-against, which sits at .331 — 36 points above league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 285, so that gap is luck, not skill. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 2.96, more than a run below league average. He is striking out 29.4% of batters against a 22% league, walking just 7.6%, and holding opponents to a .269 expected wOBA. His fastball velocity has been stepping up across the sample, now at 97.1 mph — three ticks above the league norm. The surface looks average, but the underlying numbers point to a well-above-average arm. Buy low. 66 K with a 2.96 ERA is a top-20 arm; buy the dip before the surface catches up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.4%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~26.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.6%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.96 sits 1.14 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.331 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.5%
30.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.5%vs his norm —
285 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
285 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.269
.269*
lg avg .315 ▼−.046vs his norm —
463 / 200 TBF
xERA2.96
2.96*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.14vs his norm —
463 / 200 TBF
ERA3.51
3.51*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.59vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.4%
norm29.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
463 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
463 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.331
.331*
lg avg .295 ▲+.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
285 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.0%
15.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
463 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
463 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.1 mph
97.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.1 mphvs his norm —
1836 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.4%→28.6%signal66 K — K% 29.4% (signal) tempered to career ~26.8% → projected 28.6% over ~58 remaining…
xERA 2.96signal2.96 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.96 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.308 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard66 K ROS, 2.96 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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