week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Jesús Luzardo
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Luzardo is a buy-low — BABIP noise is inflating his ERA.
His ERA sits at 4.30, but the underlying numbers tell a very different story. The culprit is his BABIP-against of .360, which is 65 points above the league average of .295. That gap is pure luck — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has only 184. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 3.16, more than a run lower. His contact suppression is elite: a hard-hit rate allowed of 27.2% (league average 40.0%) and a barrel rate of just 6.0%, both well below league averages and based on a reliable sample. He strikes out 27.4% of batters and walks only 6.7%. The skill is real; the surface is being dragged down by an unstable stat. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Buy low.
Buy Low
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.360 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL184 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL184 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
lg avg .315 ▼−.032trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL285 / 200 TBF
xERA3.16
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.94trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL285 / 200 TBF
ERA4.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20too early to trust
NOISE67 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL285 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL285 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.360
lg avg .295 ▲+.065too early to trust
NOISE184 / 800 BIP