Rest of Season Projection
FosterCategoryJesús
96K →119
4.28ERA →3.48
1.22WHIP ←1.27
6–13W ←4–8
0SV0
Current Season
FosterCategoryJesús
65K →78
3.76ERA ←4.30
1.15WHIP ←1.31
6W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Foster Griffin
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.237 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.38 is 0.75 above the ERA — regression coming
Jesús Luzardo
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.345 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Foster Griffin: 96 K / 4.28 ERA. Jesús Luzardo: 119 K / 3.48 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).