MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Foster Griffin
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Foster Griffin

WSH·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Griffin is a sell-high — his ERA masks luck regression ahead.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.92

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.247 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.43 is 0.67 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
37.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL188 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.8%
12.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL188 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL280 / 200 TBF
xERA4.43
4.43
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL280 / 200 TBF
ERA3.76
3.76
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.34too early to trust
NOISE67 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.2%
23.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL280 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL280 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.247
.247
lg avg .295 ▼−.048too early to trust
NOISE188 / 800 BIP