week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Foster Griffin
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.82 is 1.05 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 55ERA 3.82WHIP 1.13W 3–7SV 0
Griffin is a sell-high — BABIP is propping up a false ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.5%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~22.0% career norm
- Walk %5.8%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~8.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.242 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.82 is 1.05 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
303 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
303 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
445 / 200 TBF
xERA3.82
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.28vs his norm —
445 / 200 TBF
ERA2.77
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.33vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
110.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
445 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
445 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.242
lg avg .295 ▼−.053vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
303 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
445 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
445 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
1771 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.5%→23.7%signal55 K — K% 24.5% (signal) tempered to career ~22.0% → projected 23.7% over ~58 remaining…
xERA 3.82signal3.82 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.82 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.8% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep55 K ROS, 3.82 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.