week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Foster Griffin
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.26 is 1.00 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 13ERA 4.20WHIP 1.21W 1–2SV 0
Griffin is a sell-high — the ERA rests on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %6.2%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~8.2% career norm
- Strikeout %21.6%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~22.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.26 is 1.00 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
466 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
466 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
657 / 200 TBF
xERA4.26
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.16vs his norm —
657 / 200 TBF
ERA3.26
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.84vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
160.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
657 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
657 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
466 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
657 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
657 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
2605 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.6%→21.7%signal13 K — K% 21.6% (signal) held to career ~22.0% → projected 21.7% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.26signal4.20 ERA — xERA 4.26 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 67 IP.
BB% 6.2% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep13 K ROS, 4.20 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.