Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryPaul
130K ←129
2.89ERA →2.28
1.17WHIP →1.04
8–17W ←7–14
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryPaul
72K →75
1.96ERA ←2.89
0.96WHIP →0.86
7W ←6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Burns
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.89 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Burns trails Skenes in ERA (2.89 vs 2.28) and WHIP (1.17 vs 1.04). Skenes is a buy; Burns is a sell-high.